Erik Karlsson and the Sharks look like they’re ready to part ways. According to reports, Karlsson’s reps recently met with the Sharks and both sides agreed that the top pairing defenseman wants to play for a contender.
So, with all the trade speculation circulating, it’s time to look at which teams might be a match for the Norris Trophy finalist defenseman and which ones are looking for love in all the wrong places.
It’s not me; it’s you
Let’s take a few of the options off of the board already. These are the kind of trades where Grier says, “How about the (insert team name here)…” and Karlsson says, “Thanks, but no thanks.”
Arizona Coyotes – Could you picture Karlsson spending the next few years playing in front of crowds of 5,000 fans a night? I don’t think any deal could get Karlsson to okay this trade.
Calgary Flames – There’s a new coach in Calgary and some roster changes that might happen this off season. I don’t imagine Karlsson wants to move from a team with so much uncertainty to a new team with just as much uncertainty.
Chicago Blackhawks – Even when the Blackhawks pull the biggest name off the draft board in Connor Bedard, Chicago won’t have enough to entice Karlsson to move to the Windy City.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus recently loaded up, so it’s hard to imagine the team is also looking to add Karlsson. However, from Karlsson’s side of things, it would be tough to approve a trade to a team that did so poorly last season no matter how much Columbus adds this summer.
Montreal Canadiens – The Canadiens are locked into a contract with Mike Hoffman for one more year. For Sharks fans that remember, there’s bad blood between Hoffman and Karlsson that likely didn’t dissipate with time. Montreal can’t trade Hoffman’s inflated contract, which leaves no room for Karlsson.
Nashville Predators – There are a lot of questions in Nashville as Barry Trotz takes the helm. It’s hard to see Karlsson wanting to go somewhere where there’s not a clear cut path to the Cup.
Philadelphia Flyers – The Flyers are on the same timeline as the Sharks as in no where near a Cup contender. If Karlsson leaves, he’s headed somewhere where he thinks he has a shot at winning and Philly isn’t it.
Washington Capitals – The Caps are on the downswing, and while the idea of feeding Alexander Ovechkin the pass that helps him break Wayne Gretzky’s record might seem appealing, there’s not much to this team beyond Ovechkin. Karlsson says, “Thank you, next.”
Winnipeg Jets – This is probably the only potential Cup contender I will put on this list. Pierre Luc-Dubois looks like he is on his way out, if not this year, then next. What’s more, free agents tend to avoid Winnipeg. The team isn’t good enough to win it all and can’t attract the pieces to make it better.
It’s not me; it’s you (part deux)
These are the ones GM Grier doesn’t even bring to Karlsson, i.e., they’re division rivals.
Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks are intriguing. There’s a lot of young talent there and Karlsson could be the defensive piece Anaheim needs to make the playoffs, especially if the team keeps John Gibson. However, it’s a division rival, so it’s hard to see GM Grier making the trade unless the deal blows him away.
Los Angeles Kings – Ditto here. The Kings aren’t likely to give up any of the key pieces that would interest Grier and Karlsson would come at a premium price for a rival like the Kings.
Vancouver Canucks – Even if Karlsson wanted to go there, where the heck would the Canucks find the cap space? There’s no deal that the Canucks could make that would make Grier think twice about picking up the call.
In a relationship
Some of the league’s top teams already have a top defenseman and likely don’t need or want to add Karlsson and all the contract baggage that comes with him.
Boston Bruins – The Bruins have Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm locked into contracts. There’s absolutely no need to add an $11.5 million cap hit to the blueline.
Colorado Avalanche – The presence of Cale Makar pretty much makes this a nonstarter.
New Jersey Devils – Do I think that Dougie Hamilton is on the same level as Erik Karlsson? No. However, Hamilton is younger and I don’t get the impression that New Jersey thinks there’s a problem on defense, especially with young right side defensemen like Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey in the pipeline.
New York Rangers – Adam Fox is cheaper, younger and might play better defense than Karlsson. The Rangers need to add, but the team is not looking for a Karlsson.
Tampa Bay Lightning – The Lightning has Victor Hedman, who is on the same level as Karlsson. Committing $19 million plus in cap space to two defensemen over the age of 30 seems like it would create a cap crunch even Tampa Bay can’t work its way out of.
Woo me
Grier would have to make a pretty sweet offer to make any of these deals happen. In other words, don’t count on it unless there are no other options on the table.
Carolina Hurricanes – The Hurricanes notoriously hate overpaying for players and the length of Karlsson’s contract makes this a huge overpayment. However, the team has also proven that it’s happy to entertain trade deals for the right price (i.e., a steal of a deal). This would be a trade where Carolina is in control and Grier would be along for the ride.
Minnesota Wild – The Wild has $14.7 million in dead cap space. It doesn’t have a lot to work with as it is. That said, Matt Dumba isn’t cutting it, and finding someone to feed a Kirill Kaprisov rush is essential this offseason. Grier would have to retain 50% to make a deal like this happen.
Interested but not ready to commit
These are the teams that might look at a deal for Karlsson, but would not sell the farm to get him.
Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo appears to be set with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson, but if the team is trying to take that next step this season, it might want a veteran defenseman to help move things along.
Dallas Stars – Listen, Miro Heiskanen is the defenseman of the future for the Stars, but it had to smart when he only had three points in six games against the Vegas Golden Knights. I don’t see Dallas selling out to snag Karlsson, but I do see someone picking up the phone if the Sharks call.
Detroit Red Wings – Is the rebuild done? Moritz Seider didn’t take the step forward this season that the team hoped for. Maybe having a veteran defenseman like Karlsson would be just the ticket.
New York Islanders – The Islanders don’t have a top line defenseman. The Sharks have a solution. Will it happen? Probably not, but then there’s always this mystique around the league that you don’t know what Islanders’ General Manager Lou Lamoriello is doing until after it happens.
St. Louis Blues – The Blues are another team needing an elite defenseman. St. Louis’ top scorers on defense last season were Justin Faulk and Torey Krug and neither broke the 50-point mark. The Blues still have two first round draft picks for 2023. Would the team be willing to give one up for Karlsson?
Seattle Kraken – The Kraken is another team without an elite defenseman and plenty to offer for the right one. The top defenseman on the Kraken last season was Vince Dunn. While Dunn was good, it would be easy to see how his ceiling would be close to Karlsson’s basement.
Sweep you off your feet
Those dark horse teams that might be willing to rush in and sweep Sharks management off its feet with a sweetheart deal.
Florida Panthers – Florida came close to winning the Cup. So close, the team could taste it. Would a Norris Trophy finalist take the team to the next level? Would Florida be willing to go to an extreme as it chases a Cup?
Vegas Golden Knights – This is not an “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” kind of team. The Golden Knights love to make big moves and winning a Cup will only make ownership hungrier for sustained success. Would Karlsson make the Knights better and put the team in a position to repeat? Absolutely. For the Golden Knights, future consequences never seem to be more important than winning now.
Do you believe in fate?
The teams that need a guy like Karlsson right now. As in, the teams are primed to win, they just need Karlsson to get them to that next level.
Toronto Maple Leafs – No matter what Leafs’ management says, everything is likely on the table this offseason. Toronto wants a deep Cup run and Karlsson would help with that.
Pittsburgh Penguins – The Penguins want to win one more with the old core; Karlsson is looking to win a Cup. It’s a match made in heaven. Honestly, this trade is never happening, but Karlsson would help the Penguins win now, which is the only reason why Pittsburgh is in this mix.
Edmonton Oilers – What’s another multi-million dollar defenseman when you’re trying to win a Cup? Edmonton’s desperately looking for someone to feed the rush while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still in Oilers’ uniforms. This match is made in heaven if Edmonton can figure out how to make the money work.
Rekindling an old romance
Ottawa Senators – The new owners likely want to make a splash and what better splash than bringing home Erik Karlsson? Karlsson will always have a soft spot for the team that brought him into the NHL, while Sens fans fondly remember that Cup run when the defenseman put the team on his back and tried to carry it all the way to glory.
Dance with the one who brought you
San Jose Sharks – San Jose isn’t in win now mode, but Karlsson can’t force the team to trade him to a contender any more than San Jose can force another team to take the veteran defenseman.
Despite all the rumors circulating, the odds are just as good that Karlsson is wearing a teal sweater in the October.
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