Evaluating the Sharks’ prospect pool after one year under Mike Grier

When Mike Grier took over as general manager following the 2021-22 season, he inherited a mess of a team with few good prospects and no chance of competing. After a year of trades, development, and drafting, however, the future core of the team looks significantly more promising.

At Fear The Fin, we decided to examine Grier’s effect on the Sharks’ pipeline by breaking the pool down into tiers and comparing their current states to the ones that he inherited.

TIER 0: Diamond

Players here are generational talents. They are perennial contenders for the Hart Trophy and can turn water into wine at the NHL level. These players are few and far between and are spoken of in reverential terms — examples include Joe Thornton, Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid.

May 2022: NONE

July 2023: NONE

There are possibly only two prospects who have this ceiling in the entire NHL. One of them plays for Chicago and the other belongs to Philadelphia.

San Jose was never going to be able to draft Connor Bedard once they lost the lottery, and nobody could blame Grier for this, especially considering that the last-placed team didn’t win this draw either. However, many eyebrows were raised when Grier drafted Will Smith over Matvei Michkov, with the first-year GM passing on a prospect with surefire generational upside.

There is significantly more to this than meets the eye, however. For starters, Elliotte Friedman reported that Michkov was heavily engineering his desired destination, and it would be no surprise if Michkov had made it clear to the Sharks that he had no interest in joining them as a result. When combined with the geopolitical instability in Russia and a KHL contract that runs through 2025-26, Grier’s decision to pass on Michkov becomes much more understandable.

TIER 1: Platinum

Players in this tier have a genuine chance of becoming superstars. They are perennial All-Stars who produce at an extremely high rate and can serve as franchise cornerstones. Examples include Aleksander Barkov, Brayden Point, Dougie Hamilton, Alex Pietrangelo and John Tavares.

May 2022: NONE

July 2023: Will Smith (C)

The biggest weakness in San Jose’s prospect pool before Grier took over was a lack of genuine star talent, and San Jose took a big step forward here by drafting Will Smith. The USNTDP prospect broke all sorts of records in his draft year, following up a breathtaking 127 points in 60 games for the US U18s with 20 points in 7 games at the U18 World Juniors, winning both the tournament and the MVP prize in the process.

Smith is no Michkov or Bedard, but he is a high-octane offensive talent who could power San Jose’s top line for years to come. With phenomenal puck skills, an excellent shot, and high hockey IQ, Smith brings a tantalizing set of offensive skills to the team. He is quite possibly the best prospect San Jose has ever had, and his addition to the prospect pool arguably single-handedly vindicates Grier’s fire sale for the 2022-23 season.

TIER 2: Gold

Players in this tier have the potential to become reliable, consistent contributors on a good team’s top line or top pairing. They are incredibly potent threats in their own right, but function best as complements to the genuine stars on a contending team rather than doing the heavy lifting themselves. Examples include Patrick Marleau, Timo Meier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Reinhart, Devon Toews, and Morgan Reilly.

May 2022: William Eklund (LW)

July 2023: William Eklund (LW), Quentin Musty (LW)

When Grier traded Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils, most fans felt somewhat underwhelmed with the return. However, with the selection of Quentin Musty, the Sharks picked up a prospect who probably should have gone in the top ten, even in an exceptionally deep draft. A gifted playmaker armed with a dangerous shot, Musty brings an excellent set of offensive skills to the Sharks and could serve as a valuable complementary piece on their top line for a long time.

William Eklund, meanwhile, took a major step forward over the last year in his development, potting 41 points in 54 games with the Barracuda before having his season cut short through an untimely shoulder injury. A smooth-skating playmaker with high hockey IQ and extremely good puckhandling skills, Eklund is the type of player that could eventually become an invaluable part of the top line on a contending Sharks roster.

While Grier was not involved in his drafting, the new regime deserves credit for not rushing him to the NHL and letting him develop in the AHL instead, especially considering how the Sharks had previously treated top prospects like Mirco Mueller. Eklund now looks a sure bet to begin the next season as a full-time NHLer, and should earn significant top-line minutes in the process.

TIER 3: Silver

Players in this category have the potential to be excellent secondary threats. Though they are typically best used on the second line or the second-pairing for contenders, they can fill a hole at the top in a flash if needed. Examples include Justin Braun, Torey Krug, Jordan Eberle, and Reilly Smith.

May 2022: Ryan Merkley (D)

July 2023: Filip Bystedt (C), Shakir Mukhamadullin (D)

The decision to trade back to draft Filip Bystedt at No. 27 is one of the biggest feathers in Grier’s cap (albeit with an assist from Doug Wilson, Jr.). Bystedt has arguably already surpassed many of the players taken above him, including Conor Geekie (the player taken by the Coyotes with the Sharks’ original 11th overall pick), and was the standout top-line center for Team Sweden at the 2022 U20 World Juniors. At 6’3”, his size adds a valuable component to the Sharks’ future forward core, and his powerful skating and high offensive upside offer immense promise to the team. If the Sharks were looking for a successor to the 34-year-old Logan Couture, they might have found one in Bystedt.

The acquisition of Mukhamadullin is another major boost to San Jose’s prospect pool. Acquired from the Devils as the core component of the Timo Meier trade, the 6-foot-4, smooth-skating Mukhamadullin put up 10 points in 12 games for the Barracuda and might be one of the best defensive prospects the Sharks have had in years. He will likely require significant development over the next year with the Barracuda, but if he pans out, San Jose will have a high-impact player with a rare blend of size, offensive skill, and defensive mobility.

Merkley’s exit will likely not bother Sharks fans nearly as much as it would have two years ago. While no serious evaluator doubts his talent or his offensive ability, questions continued to abound regarding his defensive ability. Frustrated by his stagnation, Merkley eventually requested a trade to get a change of scenery and was dealt, along with Matt Nieto, to the Avalanche in exchange for Martin Kaut and Jacob MacDonald. Merkley’s tenure with the Avalanche was nowhere near as successful as either party hoped, however, and the defenseman was not tendered a qualifying offer at the end of the season. He remains unsigned.

TIER 3: Bronze

Players in this tier are versatile, solid NHLers who provide valuable depth to a team’s contributing core. These are typically the tweeners — on contending teams, they are generally third-pairing defenders and bottom-six forwards but can play further up the lineup on weaker teams and can patch a temporary, injury-induced hole in the top six or the top four if needed. Examples include Joonas Donskoi, Kevin Labanc, Charlie Coyle, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, and Conor Garland.

May 2022: Thomas Bordeleau (C), Daniil Gushchin (RW), Cam Lund (C), Brandon Coe (RW), Tristen Robins (C), Sasha Chmelevski (C), Artemi Kniazev (D), Gannon Laroque (D)

July 2023: Thomas Bordeleau (C), Kasper Halttunen (LW), Cam Lund (C), Tristen Robins (C), Daniil Gushchin (RW), Luca Cagnoni (D), Henry Thrun (D), Mattias Havelid (D)

This tier was never really a weakness for the Sharks, as years of success had forced the team to become very good at squeezing value out of late picks. Under Grier, however, this part of the pool has still seen some improvement in quality after a year of tinkering, especially on the back-end. Players like Henry Thrun, Luca Cagnoni, and Kasper Halttunen ooze potential and may well exceed the projections listed here, while productive years from Thomas Bordeleau, Cam Lund, and Daniil Gushchin have boosted their stock in the eyes of talent evaluators and fans alike.

There have been departures and disappointments — Gannon Laroque saw his development stall badly due to injury, while Sasha Chmelevski has departed for Russia after failing to come to an agreement on a new contract with the Sharks. Brandon Coe’s first full season in the AHL was arguably a step back, especially after a hugely promising finish to his OHL career, while Artemi Kniazev was shipped out for Leon Gawanke.

This is par for the course with these prospects, however; the volatility associated with prospect development makes it highly unlikely that all (or even most) of these players become consistent NHL contributors. Moreover, the Sharks have added promising prospects like Luca Cagnoni and Mattias Havelid to make up for these misses.

While tweeners may seem unimportant for a team in the current state of the Sharks, they still serve as valuable assets for any franchise. Whether they serve to boost the Sharks or another club remains to be seen, but players like Thrun and Bordeleau could end up becoming key pieces of a future Sharks playoff team.

There remain clear weaknesses in the Sharks’ prospect pipeline. The team could benefit from a couple more high-impact players, and there is no blue-chip goaltending prospect to be found, despite a glut of backup goalies. However, for a team whose prospect pool has veered between “thin” and “nonexistent” due to years of trading away first-rounders for rentals and established players, the sheer volume of impact prospects added over the course of the last season serves as a major silver lining in an exceptionally disappointing on-ice season.

San Jose is still years away from competing, and few of the prospects listed above will become immediate NHL contributors. That may work well for the Sharks, however, as they can continue to add some more high-level prospects through the draft lottery in the meantime. By the time many of these players are ready to become regular contributors in the NHL, the Sharks will likely have some more elite prospects poised to join them.

Three or four years from now, they may form the nucleus of a new contender emerging from San Jose.