Sharks are 6-6-1 in the past 13 games, but why?

As Sharks fans won’t soon forget, the start of the season was brutal. The Sharks couldn’t score and, more importantly, could not win. San Jose went through the entire month of October without a win and earned just a single point. The Sharks finally broke the win-less streak in early November, but not before going 0-10-1. That win seemed to open the floodgates. Since securing that first win of the season, San Jose is an NHL-middling 6-6-1.

So what changed between Nov. 4, when the Sharks lost 10-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins, and Nov. 7, when the Sharks secured a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers?

Maybe nothing, at least not offensively.

Pucks starting to go in for the Sharks

Using Evolving-Hockey, I compared two time periods – the start of the season until the Sharks won that first game (Oct. 12, 2023 to Nov. 6, 2023) and the rest of the season to Saturday (Nov. 7, 2023 to Dec. 2, 2023). Take a look:

	10/12/23 – 11/6/23	11/7/23 – 12/2/23
Games Played	11	13
Goals For %	16.79%	42.69%
Corsi For %	38.1%	39.63%
Goals For/60	1.02	2.24
Expected Goals For/60	2.44	2.41
Shots For/60	23.85	23.11
Shooting %	4.28%	9.69%

Notice that the Sharks haven’t changed much regarding possession and creating chances (Corsi For %). There’s only about a 1.5% difference between how the team played at the start of the season and how it’s playing now. What’s more, it’s not like the Sharks are taking more shots per game than before. In fact, if you look at the stats, you’ll see that the team is taking approximately half a shot less per game during this last stretch of games than in October.

What’s changed is that the shots are going in. Notice that the expected goals per 60 minutes are about the same in both time periods – 2.44 expected goals per game to 2.41. However, the Sharks have more than doubled the number of goals the team is scoring per 60 minutes, coming more in line with the expected goals per 60 minutes in these past 13 games. In other words, the team is now scoring up to its skill.

You can also see this reflected in the shooting percentage, which looks at the number of shots compared to how many of those shots result in goals. In the first time period, the Sharks were shooting at a measly 4.28%. That was well below the league average. The team as a whole is now shooting at 9.69%, more in line with the average NHL team.

Basically, San Jose looks to be doing many of the same things while getting better results.

Sharks goaltending has gotten better too

Through the first 11 games of the season, it seemed like Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen were often the only ones who showed up for the games. The duo kept the Sharks in the game far longer than the team should have been. Amazingly, Blackwood and Kahkonen have been even better these past 13 games.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Let’s look at the difference for Blackwood first.

	10/12/23 – 11/6/23	11/7/23 – 12/2/23
Games Played	8	9
Goals Against	31.58	22.81
Expected Goals Against	27.03	30.66
Save Percentage	87.95%	92.51%
Goals Saved Above Expected	-4.55	7.85

Notice that Blackwood played approximately the same number of games in both spans. The big difference in Blackwood’s game is that swing in goals saved above expected. In the first 11 games, Blackwood was a -4.55 goals saved above expected. But in these most recent games he has 7.85 goals saved above expected. In other words, he’s bailing the Sharks out more.

Kaapo Kahkonen

You can see a similar story with Kahkonen.

	10/12/23 – 11/6/23	11/7/23 – 12/2/23
Games Played	5	5
Goals Against	18.02	15.55
Expected Goals Against	17.48	17.88
Save Percentage	88.04%	91.24%
Goals Saved Above Expected	-0.54	2.33

Kahkonen may be an even better case study because his situations before the Nov. 7 date and after are almost identical. In both instances, he played five games. His expected goals against numbers were close together at 17.48 and 17.88. However, the difference in goals saved above expected is nearly three goals. That was enough for a 3-2-0 record in his last five games.

Sharks scoring more, getting better saves

It sounds simple when you say that the Sharks are scoring more and getting more saves. After all, that’s what every team in the NHL wants to see. However, the numbers show that what’s really happening is that this team is more in line with what the Sharks were expected to be at the start of the season.

The Corsi for percentage has not changed too much. The Sharks still do not possess the puck very well. As a whole, the team is getting dominated in puck possession. That was to be expected. However, the players are getting better at converting on the opportunities they create. The shots are going in.

Behind the Sharks both Kahkonen and Blackwood are finding their form. They are keeping the team in games long enough so that the Sharks have a chance to win on any given night. The duo had a save percentage of 87.11% before that Nov. 7 win. Since then, they have a combined save percentage of 91.85%.

The San Jose Sharks are not going to win a lot of games this season. No one thought they would, but this team is better than its 0-10-1 start to the season. The Sharks of these last 13 games are more in line with what you might expect to see for the remainder of this season than the team that came out on opening night.