This piece is a continuation of our monthly prospect piece at Fear The Fin, where we combine current form and overall ability to create a “prospect power ranking.” These rankings are meant to be somewhat stable.
To qualify as a prospect, players must fit the NHL definition of rookie, which states that “a player must not have played in more than 25 NHL games in any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two preceding seasons. Any player at least 26 years of age (by September 15th of that season) is not considered a rookie.”
By this definition, Thomas Bordeleau and William Eklund are not rookies, though Henry Thrun and Ty Emberson still qualify.
1. Will Smith (C)
Age: 18
Team: Boston College (NCAA)
Statistics: 16 games, 22 points (7 goals, 15 assists)
Previous rank: 1
It continues to be an incredibly smooth transition year from juniors to college for Will Smith, who remains arguably the most skilled player San Jose has ever drafted. In the eight games Boston College has played this past month, Smith has put up two goals and nine assists for 11 points and has looked every bit the offensive dynamo that the Sharks thought they were getting at #4. His silky passing and an unparalleled ability to generate some incredible offensive volume makes him one of the standout players in an exceptional Boston College team, and his ability to create separation from defenders and thread lanes that ordinarily go unnoticed mark him as an offensive wizard of rare pedigree.
Smith’s main problem remains his defense. He very much reminds me of Patrick Kane on the ice, and that cuts both ways. When his team isn’t in the offensive zone, he’s frequently found hanging around the edges, waiting for a breakout pass or a chance to spring a rush the other way. Smith breaks a lot of the rules that traditional players must adhere to, and he’s been offensively gifted enough to get away with it at basically every level. But even Joe Thornton and Connor McDavid had to learn how to play defense in the NHL, and it isn’t reasonable to expect that Smith will be an exception. His ability to create magic with the puck is not in question, but he’ll need to improve his backchecking and defensive work rate if he wants to ever become the all-NHL superstar that his skillset so tantalizingly promises.
2. Quentin Musty (C/LW)
Age: 18
Team: Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Statistics: 16 games, 31 points (5 goals, 8 assists)
Previous rank: 2
Quentin Musty has been on an absolute heater. In the 7 games since our last set of rankings, the former 26th overall pick has put up 18 points and has looked like an absolute draft-day steal, with eye-poppingly good offensive numbers. Musty’s offensive instincts and nose for the net supplement a physical frame already more robust than those of many NHLers. It’s worth noting that if he was born just two months later, Musty would have been eligible for the 2024 draft, where he would likely have been a top-10 pick.
Musty, who projects as a potential top-line forward in the NHL one day, is on track for a season that might count as the best age-adjusted year that any Sharks prospect has ever had, though it’s advisable to wait and see as to whether this pace is actually sustainable. He would be a value pick at #26 in any year and has even outperformed many players taken above him in his own stacked draft class. His only problem appears to be discipline, as he recently got suspended for a slewfoot, marking his second suspension of the season. These issues may well have contributed to his omission from the USA World Juniors squad.
In either case, Sharks fans will probably get a taste of him in the NHL next year because he is quickly becoming far too good to stay in juniors. Between Musty, Fabian Zetterlund, and Shakir Mukhamadullin, it’s probably fair to say that the Sharks aren’t complaining much about their returns in the Timo Meier trade.
3. Luca Cagnoni
Age: 18
Team: Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Statistics: 24 games, 32 points (5 goals, 27 assists)
Previous rank: 4
Luca Cagnoni was on a breakneck offensive pace for most of November but has slowed down a bit in recent weeks, with just six points in his last nine games for the Winterhawks. Regardless, while fluctuations are to be expected over the course of a long season, his incredible passing vision and his ability to quarterback a power-play unit would give the Sharks the type of asset they’ve been missing for years.
When one watches Cagnoni, they might be reminded of Brian Campbell. He’ll always be known for his offensive game, but the 5’9” defender really seems to have the defensive aptitude, the skills and the work rate needed to carve out a role as a solid, contributing NHLer despite his undersized nature. Whether he’ll actually get anywhere depends a lot on the environment he’s dropped into and whether a coach can allow him enough of a leash to develop properly at the professional level. Thankfully, under General Manager Mike Grier, San Jose seems to have every desire to do that.
4. Shakir Mukhamadullin (D)
Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (NHL)
Statistics: 19 games, 10 points (2 goal, 8 assists)
Previous rank: 5
Mukhamadullin continues to make steady strides with the Barracuda, and he is one of only two defensemen that Grier seems to not be actively listening to offers for, per Elliotte Friedman. Mukhamadullin has become a bit more confident with his shot this season and is launching many more pucks to the net for the Barracuda, putting his devastating one-timer to use.
His incredible physical tools and smooth skating mean he will almost certainly find his way onto an NHL team, but he is still incredibly raw. The organization’s patient approach with him is likely the right one; unlike the more NHL-ready Nikita Okhotiuk (the other defenseman acquired in the Meier trade), Mukhamadullin needs to make significant improvements in his defensive game before he can become an NHL regular, though his ceiling also happens to be significantly higher than any defender currently in the organization.
5. Daniil Gushchin (RW)
Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
Statistics: 18 games, 15 points (6 goals, 9 assists)
Previous rank: 3
Gushchin’s torrid start to the season resulted in a call-up to the Sharks, where he played two games and managed to grab an assist. Since returning to the Barracuda, his point production has somewhat stalled, with just two points in his last nine games, and while his shot generation metrics remain robust, even those indicate a slight decline in play.
Prospects are nothing if not inconsistent, and Gushchin’s incredible start was never likely to last. His NHL cameo was solid, with flashes of the spectacular, and he remains a truly gifted offensive player. He evokes memories of a younger Kevin Labanc, and if San Jose manages to get a similar level of production out of Gushchin, who projects as a handy middle-six forward, they’ll be very happy indeed.
6. Cameron Lund (C)
Age: 19
Team: Northeastern (NCAA)
Statistics: 13 games, 13 points (6 goals, 7 assists)
Previous rank: 6
There is an argument to be made that the best Sharks prospect picked in the 2022 draft is not Filip Bystedt but Cam Lund. That might still be a stretch, but there’s little question that Lund has had a significantly better start to the season than Bystedt.
The 6’2” center starred with a hat-trick against Will Smith’s Boston College, spearheading Northeastern’s offense in their riveting 5-3 win over the top-ranked team in the conference. Lund is another classic middle-six center, but it’s far better for an organization’s culture and financials sheet to develop those in-house than it is to pay $4M for them on the open market.
7. Ty Emberson (D)
Age: 23
Team: San Jose Sharks
Statistics: 16 games, 4 points (1 goal, 3 assists)
Previously: Not Ranked
This feels a bit cheap, but Emberson is technically a rookie, and he has had an extremely impressive start to the season after having been claimed off waivers by the Sharks in training camp. The defender has combined with Mario Ferraro to make up one of the better defensive pairs in the NHL, and his acquisition marks one of the few positive value adds to the Sharks over the last year.
The question for the Sharks is just how long Emberson stays with the team, especially given the number of clubs in need of defensive reinforcements. He could fetch a mid-round pick in return and could represent an attractive low-cost acquisition for clubs scared off by the asking price on Ferraro.
8. Filip Bystedt (C)
Age: 19
Team: Linköping (SHL)
Statistics: 24 games, 8 points (4 goals, 4 assists)
Previous rank: 7
The biggest doubts surrounding Bystedt had to do with his ability to produce offense at a high level, and it’s not clear that those concerns would have been alleviated by his early start to the season. His final year in the SHL currently shows a concerning regression from his previous season’s performance, and the production just doesn’t seem to be improving with him despite the forward receiving ample ice time. Despite his disappointing start, dropping Bystedt from this list would be an overreaction at the moment, especially because Kasper Halttunen’s 11 power-play goals don’t merit inclusion just yet.
Bystedt will be an NHL player before long, in all likelihood, and he will likely find his way onto the Sharks’ third line. His floor is fairly high in many ways. But the Sharks would probably have wanted something more than that from him, especially after his promising post-draft season, and his progress thus far will be a major source of concern for them.
Previously on the list: Henry Thrun (#7)
Honorable mention: Kasper Halttunen (LW), Mattias Hävelid (D)
There were years when Gushchin and Lund would have been ranked as the top prospects in the system. Now, however, the Sharks have three truly elite young players in Eklund, Musty and Will Smith, and if Luca Cagnoni’s form continues, he may not be far off in joining them. The pool is not without its weaknesses — San Jose could use an elite defensive prospect and another impact forward, especially if Bystedt’s development continues to stall. But the growth of most of the Sharks’ prospects will gladden the hearts of Sharks fans during an exceptionally bleak season.
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