Erik Karlsson 2023 player review: That’s Norris Trophy Finalist Erik Karlsson to you

Writing a player review like this one can be intimidating. All the ones that have come before are players that virtually no one in the NHL is looking at. Okay, well, they’re looking at them, but not closely.

However, Karlsson’s season has been dissected ad naseam by pundits worldwide. After all, when was the last time you saw a defenseman score 101 points?  

Karlsson’s 2022-23 production

Karlsson was the first defenseman to cross the century mark in points since Brian Leetch did it in 1991-92. That’s 31 years. Only five other NHL defensemen have accomplished such a feat – Bobby Orr (6 times), Paul Coffey (5 times), Al MacInnis (1 time), Denis Potvin (1 time) and the aforementioned Leetch (1 time).

While the 101 points are impressive, perhaps what Sharks fans should be most excited about is the fact that Karlsson played all 82 games this season. In the last four seasons, Karlsson played 50 games (2021-22), 52 games (2020-21), 56 (2019-20) and 53 games (2018-19).

But what about the defense?

One of the biggest knocks against Karlsson is the idea that he is not a “defenseman.” Sure, that’s his position, but skeptics would say you must play defense to be considered a defenseman.

Karlsson’s regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) – the stat that measures a player’s performance while considering things like zone starts, competition, etc. – shows that the skeptics have a leg to stand on.

On the offensive side of the puck, Karlsson was elite. He was a top defenseman in the league in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) and his Corsi for per 60 minutes was in the upper echelon of NHL players. He was an offensive dynamo.

However, when you look at his defense, he was near the lower third of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). In Karlsson’s case, one negates the other. At even strength this season, Karlsson had 3.46 GF/60 and 3.46 GA/60, leaving a goal differential of zero.

Was this a Norris Trophy season for Karlsson?

This leads to the question, are the other two finalists – the New York Rangers’ Adam Fox and Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar – more deserving of a Norris Trophy?

Karlsson’s biggest competition in this race is Fox. While not as impressive in the goals department, Fox was much more successful on defense than Karlsson and slightly more successful on the power play.

Meanwhile, Cale Makar had a down season by elite defenseman standards. Makar was good, but not great and certainly not in the same league as Karlsson or Fox this season.

Of course, Karlsson has one thing going for him that none of the other players can claim, 101 points. Makar only had 66 points, while Fox had 72. Many pundits said during the season that if Karlsson broke that century mark, it gave them much more to consider on the Norris Trophy ballot.

Karlsson created trade targets

One interesting thing about Karlsson’s play this season and part of last season is that it helped the Sharks in another key way. It elevated defensemen.

Karlsson averaged 25:37 minutes of ice time per game this season. He started out with Jaycob Megna as his defensive partner. Megna’s numbers increased. In February, he was traded to the Seattle Kraken. The Sharks received a fourth round pick.

Something similar happened last season with Jacob Middleton. Middleton played alongside Karlsson at the beginning of the season, and then Middleton was traded to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Kaapo Kahkonen and a 2022 5th round pick that the Sharks used to select Jake Furlong.

Karlsson’s play elevates the play of his defensive partner. It doesn’t matter who that partner is. For a Sharks team that’s desperate to find NHL-worthy defensemen, that’s a huge asset.

Karlsson’s future with the Sharks

Karlsson is in the middle of a contract that pays him $11.5 million AAV through the 2026-27 season. It includes a full no move clause (NMC), which means Karlsson ultimately has the final say no matter what trade is on the table.

The defenseman has said he is open to a trade. He wants to compete for a Stanley Cup. The current Sharks’ roster is in no position to do that. Karlsson would likely be willing to accept any trade that sends him to a quality cup contender.

That could create a market for San Jose if the team is willing to retain some of Karlsson’s salary. All of the cup contenders currently have cap problems, especially considering the fact that the cap doesn’t look like it’s rising by much next season. San Jose will have to retain money if the team wants a trade to work.

And for my money, there is no better time than this offseason to trade Karlsson. Raise your hand if you think the defenseman will put up another 100-point season. This is the highest Karlsson’s stock will be for the rest of his career, especially considering his past issues with injuries. The Sharks have to sell high.

This is a deal General Manager Mike Grier must win. The results of the Brent Burns trade were underwhelming. It was Grier’s one free pass for a salary dump. The jury is still out on the Timo Meier deal. San Jose’s top assets are gone and the return is only so-so. Karlsson is one of the final aging pieces. Grier will need to pull off an amazing trade or he will face the wrath of Sharks fans.  

Even with the high AAV contract, Karlsson merits at least a first-round draft pick and a top prospect. Grier needs to get that and more if Sharks fans are going to be confident in his ability to reshape this franchise.  

Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players that are 1) still with the Sharks and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.