Noah Gregor 2023 player review: Is it time to give up on the young forward?

Through four seasons with the Sharks, forward Noah Gregor appears to be unlucky. No matter how hard Gregor tries, he has trouble finding the back of the net.

Nothing was worse than last season when the center’s shooting percentage was 5.1 percent, but if you call this a “rebound” year, there wasn’t much of a rebound.

Gregor’s 2022-23 production

This season, Gregor’s shooting percentage was 8.4 percent. It’s better than last season, but now it’s the last data point we need to decide that Gregor likely won’t do much better.

Through four seasons with the Sharks, Gregor’s shooting percentage has only broken 9 percent once in 2019-2020. Of course, he only took 33 shots that season. If Gregor were scoring at a 10 to 15 goal pace a year, that might be okay for the Sharks. But this is Gregor’s first year breaking that 10 goal mark.

Gregor’s 17 points this season marks his second-best season in teal. In all four seasons, he has never played more than 63 games, and it was only last season (2021-22) that Gregor broke the 20-point mark with 23 points (8 G, 15 A).

With 178 career NHL games in the books, it looks like Gregor may have hit his ceiling in the NHL.

Is Gregor’s hockey IQ lacking?

For a professional athlete, it’s difficult to believe that luck plays a part in their ability to succeed at the highest level. But if it’s not bad luck, what’s preventing Gregor from consistently succeeding on the ice?

A look at Gregor’s regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) – a stat to measure a player’s success or lack thereof on the ice while taking into account things like zone starts, quality of opponent, home/away, etc. – shows that while Gregor is making the plays, he can’t finish them.

Gregor’s expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) this season was better than the average NHL player’s. He created chances. However, converting on those chances is another story. Looking at Gregor’s goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60), you see that he’s not converting well at all.

If Gregor were piling up the assists, this might be okay. It would be a sign that Gregor is creating the chances and other players are cashing in on them. However, Gregor’s Corsi against per 60 minutes (CA/60) tells a different story. The Corsi against measures the number of shots, missed shots, blocked shots, etc. that the opposing team had on the Sharks’ net when Gregor is on the ice. You’ll notice that when Gregor’s on the ice, opponents are usually in the Sharks’ zone.  

Sadly, this year isn’t an outlier.

From 2019-2022, Gregor’s GF/60 was still much lower than his xGF/60. His CA/60 has only gotten worse this year compared to the three seasons prior.

So if it’s not bad luck that’s contributing to Gregor’s poor performance, the next best guess is that his hockey IQ simply isn’t high enough to process at the sport’s highest level. For Gregor, the plays are there, he’s just not making them.

Gregor’s goals above replacement (GAR)

As if to show just how poorly Gregor has performed for the Sharks, take a look at the player’s goals above replacement (GAR). When compared to the other players on the Sharks from 2020 through 2023, Gregor is at the bottom of the list.

From 2020-2023, no single Sharks player who has played 100 minutes or more in teal has had a lower GAR than Gregor. That includes players like Ryan Merkley, John Leonard and Santeri Hatakka.

Guys currently playing for the San Jose Barracuda, including Thomas Bordeleau, William Eklund and Martin Kaut, all have better GARs than Gregor.

Gregor’s future with the Sharks

Gregor is a restricted free agent (RFA) this summer. If the Sharks want to retain the rights to the forward, the team will need to sign him to a deal worth $997,500 AAV, according to CapFriendly.

That’s not a bad number for Gregor and a deal around $1 million for one to two years might be good for San Jose, but not for the reason you think. Gregor isn’t cutting it for the Sharks, but his value is not so low that the team should allow him to walk. I could see another team being interested in the 24-year-old forward for the right price.

If General Manager Mike Grier signed Gregor and then traded him to another team for assets such as a third or fourth round 2023 draft pick, that might not be a bad deal. A swap for another struggling young prospect, like the deal Grier made with Colorado involving Ryan Merkley and Martin Kaut is another option.

Either way, Grier can get value out of Gregor. The GM should sign and then trade him.

I’m comfortable with this move because Grier has so far proven he can identify bottom-six talent. Gregor’s ceiling appears to be bottom-six at best. Grier added Luke Kunin and Steven Lorentz last offseason. He re-signed Jonah Gadjovich. I don’t think it would be hard for Grier to identify a free agent at a low cost to slot into a third or fourth line role instead of Gregor.

Meanwhile, Gregor would have a chance to prove himself on another team. He’s one of those players where a change of scenery may be the best thing in the world for him.

Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players that are 1) still with the Sharks and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.