Sharks prospect power rankings: January

This piece is a continuation of our monthly prospect piece at Fear The Fin, where we combine current form and overall ability to create a “prospect power ranking.” These rankings are meant to be somewhat stable and so you will not see much change from Fear the Fin’s December power rankings, though there is some movement.

To qualify as a prospect, players must fit the NHL definition of rookie, which state that “a player must not have played in more than 25 NHL games in any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two preceding seasons. Any player at least 26 years of age (by September 15th of that season) is not considered a rookie.”

By this definition, Thomas Bordeleau and William Eklund are not rookies, though Henry Thrun and Ty Emberson still qualify.

1. Will Smith (C)

Age: 18
Team: Boston College (NCAA)
Statistics:

• 19 games, 27 points (11 goals, 16 assists) – Boston College
• 7 games, 9 points (4 goals, 5 assists) – USA-U20 (WJC)

Previous rank: 1

Despite getting more limited ice-time at the World Junior Championship (WJC), the Sharks’ star prospect was able to make a vital set of contributions to his team’s dominant gold medal display alongside Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault, his inseparable linemates. Although he got off to a slow start, his game picked up significantly in the medal rounds and he was, at times, his team’s most dynamic offensive player on the ice (especially in the semifinal).

As usual, Smith’s biggest question marks come around his defending and his transition play, and the WJC was no different. But that has been a topic revisited time and again in previous iterations of these rankings, so it would be good to explain why he is still rated so highly by scouts and prospect models alike instead.

Prospect analysis often falls into the trap of overthinking to prove a point, but the simplest conclusions are often the correct ones. It is very difficult to create a full goal’s worth of defensive actions and neutral zone play, and this is why the single most predictive trait that translates across levels is scoring. Every prospect model finds that it is much easier to teach a player how to defend than it is to teach him how to score. Smith’s goalscoring instinct and his ability to creatively thread any passing lane will earn him a very, very long developmental leash, and there have still been visible improvements in effort and compete levels from him over the course of the year.

2. Shakir Mukhamadullin (D)

Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (NHL)
Statistics: 34 games, 24 points (5 goal, 19 assists)
Previous rank: 5

We’re now seeing exactly what Mukhamadullin is capable of in the professional leagues and just why General Manager Mike Grier targeted him as arguably the key component in the Timo Meier trade. With a scorching run of 16 points in his last 17 games, his offensive game continues to blossom as his defensive game matures. His booming one-timer on the Barracuda power-play serves as a potent weapon, and his tremendous reach and physical profile make his ascension to the NHL almost inevitable at this rate.

The question with his NHL debut is now simply a question of when — with the franchise currently fielding the undisputed worst Sharks roster of the century, it makes little sense to put their superstar prospect in a position where he would get overwhelmed by quality NHL opposition, with only the carcass of Marc-Edouard Vlasic or the inexperience of Henry Thrun as assistance.

Since coming to San Jose, Mukhamadullin has 34 points in 46 games for the Barracuda. With the Sharks getting him, Quentin Musty, Fabian Zetterlund, Nikita Okhotiuk and another draft pick as a result of the Meier trade, it is increasingly difficult to argue that Grier did not get a very good return for the Swiss winger, especially considering that he has massively underwhelmed in New Jersey to date.

3. Luca Cagnoni (D)

Age: 18
Team: Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Statistics: 36 games, 46 points (8 goals, 38 assists)
Previous rank: 4

It continues to be an incredible season for Cagnoni, though his production has (somewhat predictably) slowed from the breakneck speed he began the campaign with. His defensive game is rounding out nicely, while his eye-popping passing ability arguably surpasses that of many forwards in the league.

Every scout will continue to ask questions about Cagnoni’s defensive presence simply based on his size, and those concerns were not unfounded during his draft year. This season, however, he appears to have made some excellent strides in his play without the puck, and it would be lazy to simply typecast him as a one-dimensional progressor.

The best players still create goals, no matter where they are, and Cagnoni’s phenomenal offensive instincts will usually comfortably make up for any defensive lapses that he may sustain. I’m reminded a lot of Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Adam Fox when I see him play, and while it would certainly be a stretch to suggest that he may have a similar NHL impact, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he could turn into a genuine star if his development is handled correctly.

4. Quentin Musty (C/LW)

Age: 18
Team: Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Statistics: 28 games, 46 points (19 goals, 27 assists)
Previous rank: 2

After a barely-believable offensive run in November, Musty’s production has come back to more normal levels, with 15 points in his last 12 games. However, he remains in the midst of an incredible season, with only Seattle’s Carson Rehkopf outpacing his points-per-game rate in the entire OHL. Musty will almost certainly get the chance to lead a very good Sudbury team deep into the playoffs, and his progression will be among the most interesting things to see. If he can cut out the flurry of needless penalties while sustaining his relentless motor, he may be in the NHL as soon as next year.

5. Daniil Gushchin (RW)

Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
Statistics: 33 games, 30 points (13 goals, 17 assists)
Previous rank: 3

Gushchin continues to put up very promising numbers on a decidedly subpar Barracuda team. While his stickhandling and audacity may be the traits that stick in people’s minds when watching him, his real value comes in his ability to provide immense offensive volume through both his shooting and passing. The best players will always find a way to contribute to goals, and Gushchin has done that at virtually every level. Expect him to see more sustained time with the Sharks next year, where he may eventually peak as a nice eventual replacement for what peak Kevin Labanc once was.

6. Jake Furlong (D)

Age: 19
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL), Canada U-20 (WJC)
Statistics: 

• 33 games, 20 points (1 goal, 19 assists) – Halifax
• 5 games, 1 point (1 goal) – Canada U-20

Previous rank: Not Ranked

Furlong’s rapid ascension over the last couple of years resulted in a callup to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship, where he played five games on a roster that several didn’t expect him to make in the first place. During the tournament, he played his way into some very high-leverage minutes, ranking third on the team in terms of total time-on-ice, and was very solid defensively. I don’t expect him to become anything more than a bottom-pairing defenseman for an NHL club, but that would still represent a very good outcome for the Sharks.

7. Cameron Lund (C)

Age: 19
Team: Northeastern (NCAA)
Statistics: 19 games, 18 points (8 goals, 10 assists)
Previous rank: 6

It’s been a quietly solid sophomore campaign for Lund at Northeastern, where he is producing around the benchmark point-per-game rate despite getting virtually no help from a very poor team. The second half of the year will be telling as Lund looks to juggle the increased leadership weight on his shoulders while also providing one of the few offensive sparks in a rather lackluster lineup. He profiles as a bottom-six center for now and looks increasingly likely to eventually make the NHL, and if he can add a bit more offensive pop to his game, he may eventually grow to become a middle-six player at his peak.

8. Mattias Havelid (D)

Age: 19
Team: Linköping (SHL), Sweden U-20 (WJC)
Statistics: 

• 24 games, 8 points (1 goal, 7 assists) – Linkoping
• 7 games, 6 points (1 goal, 5 assists) – Sweden

Previous rank: Not Ranked

It is somewhat interesting to see that the 2022 second-rounders of Havelid and Lund have currently surpassed first-round pick Filip Bystedt. While Bystedt has seen his growth sputter and stall out for Linköping, Havelid has only gone from strength to strength. Playing on Sweden’s top pair at the World Juniors, the 5’10” defender impressed with his puck-moving skills and looks set to come over to North America for good next year.

Previously on the list: Ty Emberson (#7), Filip Bystedt (#8)

Honorable mention: Kasper Halttunen (LW)

Between Smith, Mukhamadullin, Cagnoni and Musty, the Sharks now have four players in their pool who could turn into potential top-of-the-lineup NHLers. Along with the top-5 draft pick they will almost certainly be receiving this year, it is safe to say that the pipeline has never looked stronger in what is otherwise a very, very bleak year for the team.