Size matters for Sharks prospect Will Smith

During the State of the Sharks event on Thursday night, a fan told Sharks General Manager Mike Grier that they were disappointed that Will Smith was sent to Boston College instead of making his NHL debut. After all, the three players selected before Smith in the 2023 draft (Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli) all made their debuts with their respective NHL clubs. And then there was 1997 second overall pick Patrick Marleau who debuted just a few months after he was drafted by the Sharks.

Grier was candid in his answer, telling the fan that physically, Smith wasn’t as well developed as Marleau was at that age.

Sharks fan says he was disappointed Will Smith went back to school instead of turning pro at 18 years old like Patrick Marleau.

Grier says Marleau had the body of a grown man. "Looked like a 27-year-old," and that Smith still looks like, physically, a teenager.

— Curtis Pashelka (@CurtisPashelka) January 26, 2024

When Fear the Fin previewed Smith leading up to the draft, he was listed at 6-foot-0 and 172 pounds. He’s put on some weight since then; Boston College has him down at 6-foot-0 and 181 pounds. Still, that doesn’t put him in the same size category as some of the other players who debuted just a few months after their draft day.

Most San Jose Sharks top draft picks saw a delayed debut

The Sharks have had a top ten pick in the NHL 12 times in the franchise’s history.

• 1991: Pat Falloon (2nd overall)
• 1992: Mike Rathje (3rd overall)
• 1992: Andrei Nazarov (10th overall)
• 1993: Viktor Kozlov (6th overall)
• 1996: Andrei Zyuzin (2nd overall)
• 1997: Patrick Marleau (2nd overall)
• 1998: Brad Stuart (3rd overall)
• 2003: Milan Michalek (6th overall)
• 2005: Devin Setoguchi (8th overall)
• 2007: Logan Couture (9th overall)
• 2015: Timo Meier (9th overall)
• 2021: William Eklund (7th overall)
• 2023: Will Smith (4th overall)

Of those 12 picks, only three have debuted in the same season that they were drafted.

Pat Falloon was a shoo-in first year player. As the first pick of a new franchise, there weren’t many other options for the Sharks. Falloon was going to start no matter what. Still, he had the size. Falloon was listed at 5-foot-10 and a half inches and 192 pounds on draft day. That’s still 20 pounds heavier than Smith, even though he was a few inches shorter.

Grier wasn’t wrong about Marleau’s size. I took a dive into the San Jose Mercury News archives and found that Marleau was 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds on draft day. That’s an inch taller and 18 pounds heavier than Smith. The guy drafted before Marleau, “Jumbo” Joe Thornton was indeed Jumbo. He was 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds.

The other Shark to make it to the NHL almost immediately after his draft was forward Milan Michalek. He was listed at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds on draft day, so not exactly a guy you push around. Even with his size, Michalek was injured almost immediately after he stepped on the ice. In his second NHL game, he suffered a knee injury. He was on the road to recovery when he reinjured it later in the season. That, followed by the NHL lockout, and Michalek didn’t get his third NHL game on the books until Oct. 5, 2005. He was 20 years and almost 10 months old at that time.

Eklund debuted after his draft but only played nine games before he was sent back to Sweden to play one more season in the SHL.

All of the other players drafted in the top ten took at least one more year to develop before they debuted in the NHL.

Comparing Smith to his 2023 NHL Draft counterparts

Four players from the first round of the 2023 NHL draft are currently playing in the NHL.

• Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks)
• Leo Carlsson (Anaheim Ducks)
• Adam Fantilli (Columbus Blue Jackets)
• Zach Benson (Buffalo Sabres)

When you compare Smith’s size to the three players drafted before him, you find that Smith is on the smaller side. Only Benson, who was drafted 13th overall by the Buffalo Sabres, is comparable in size to Smith. Benson is 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds. According to Sabres Head Coach Don Granato, the Sabres had concerns about Benson’s size, but the rookie put those to rest early in the season.

“He has offensive gifts, but he’s not a liability at all,” Granato told WHAM just a week into the 2023-24 season. “Usually, you have to send a guy to the (AHL) or back to juniors because they don’t know how to defend in the NHL or put themselves in the right position, or the opponent on the other side is too physically imposing and they need to go back and train and get a little bigger and stronger. He’s addressed all of those.”

For comparison, Bedard is 5-foot-10 but 185 pounds, Adam Fantilli is 6-foot-2, 194 pounds and Leo Carlsson is 6-foot-3 and 194 pounds.

Comparing Smith to the other fourth overall picks

While there’s no hard or fast rule about who debuts directly after their draft and who does not, it’s not customary for the fourth overall pick to start in the NHL. Looking back at the fourth overall pick for the past 25 years, only a handful have gone directly from the draft and joined the NHL.

• 2022: Shane Wright (Seattle Kraken, debuted Oct. 12, 2022)
• 2021: Luke Hughes (New Jersey Devils, debuted April 11, 2023)
• 2020: Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings, debuted Oct. 19, 2021)
• 2019: Bowen Byram (Colorado Avalanche, debuted Jan. 21, 2021)
• 2018: Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa Senators, debuted Oct. 8, 2018)
• 2017: Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche, debuted April 15, 2019)
• 2016: Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton Oilers, debuted Oct. 12, 2016)
• 2015: Mitchell Marner (Toronto Maple Leafs, debuted Oct. 12, 2016)
• 2014: Sam Bennett (Calgary Flames, debuted April 12, 2016)
• 2013: Seth Jones (Nashville Predators, debuted Oct. 3, 2013)
• 2012: Griffin Reinhart (New York Islanders, debuted Oct. 10, 2014)
• 2011: Adam Larsson (New Jersey Devils, debuted Oct. 8, 2011)
• 2010: Ryan Johansen (Columbus Blue Jackets, debuted Oct. 7, 2011)
• 2009: Evander Kane (Atlanta Thrashers, debuted Oct. 3, 2009)
• 2008: Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues, debuted Oct. 10, 2008)
• 2007: Thomas Hickey (Los Angeles Kings, debuted Jan. 27, 2013)
• 2006: Nicklas Backstrom (Washington Capitals, debuted Oct. 5, 2007)
• 2005: Benoit Pouliot (Minnesota Wild, debuted Nov. 22, 2006)
• 2004: Andrew Ladd (Carolina Hurricanes, debuted Nov. 20, 2005)
• 2003: Nikolay Zherdev (Columbus Blue Jackets, debuted Dec. 2, 2003)
• 2002: Joni Pitkanen (Philadelphia Flyers, debuted Oct. 9, 2003)
• 2001: Stephen Weiss (Florida Panthers, debuted Apr. 3, 2002)
• 2000: Rostislav Klesla (Columbus Blue Jackets, debuted Oct. 7, 2000)
• 1999: Pavel Brendl (New York Rangers, debuted Oct. 4, 2001)

Eight of the players on the list joined the NHL directly after the draft. Those players did not include top NHLers like Nicklas Backstrom, Sam Bennett, Mitch Marner or Cale Makar or Luke Hughes.

In the case of 2022 pick Shane Wright, Wright played five games and then was sent down to his junior team. Wright has been in and out of the NHL since then and has only played 11 NHL games to date.

2018 fourth overall pick, Brady Tkachuk, is the next player on the list to join the NHL directly after the draft, but Tkachuk is a bit of an anomaly compared to other draftees. For one thing, Tkachuk had already played a year of college hockey before the draft. He was already playing against bigger and older players. What’s more, he was 19 years old when he debuted. Most of the other players on this list were 18 when the did or could have made their debuts.

2016’s fourth overall pick, Jesse Puljujarvi, was already at his hockey weight when he joined the Edmonton Oilers following the draft. According to the NHL website, Puljujarvi was 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds at the time of his draft. He’s about that size now at the age of 25.

2013’s fourth overall pick Seth Jones and 2011’s Adam Larsson were in similar boats as Puljujarvi when they were drafted. Jones was listed at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, according to Bleacher Report. Larsson was a 6-foot-3, 197-pound player already playing against men in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). Both men were large enough on draft day to stand strong against the large players of the NHL.

2009 fourth overall pick, Evander Kane, is probably the outlier of the bunch. He was just 6-foot-0 and 160 pounds on draft day. However, Kane is a gritty player who’s not afraid to tussle with players larger than him, while Smith is a skilled player not known for playing with the same edge. I imagine Kane’s ferocity made putting him in the lineup directly after the draft easier.

2008’s Alex Pietrangelo played three games for the Blues before suffering a head injury that prevented him from playing for nearly a month. He played five more games for the Blues before he was sent back to his junior team.

2000 fourth overall pick Rostislav Klesla also played eight games before he was sent back to his junior team.

Smith’s circumstances also contributed to management’s decision

Grier was absolutely right about size mattering. Looking at NHL history and Sharks’ history, Smith needs more time to develop physically.

However, taking size out of the equation, there’s the player’s development to think about as well. For one thing, Smith is a college hockey player, not a junior hockey player. College players must decide to go pro; they can’t switch back and forth the way junior hockey players do. As a result, if Smith were to join the Sharks directly after the draft, he would have to decide that he’s not playing college hockey. There is no in-between.

(Update: My great readers pointed out that you can, in fact, play in the AHL if you’ve never played for a junior-level Canadian team. The deal with Shane Wright was complicated in part because he went the junior hockey development route. That said, one has to wonder if Smith wants to go pro just to play in the AHL instead of playing with known linemates at Boston College.)

What’s more, Smith can’t be sent down to the AHL if things don’t work out with the Sharks. There are rules surrounding who can and cannot be sent to the AHL. These rules popped up regarding the aforementioned 2022 pick Wright, who was too young to go to the AHL but too skilled to play in the juniors. Players need to be at least 20 to play in the AHL or have played four seasons in juniors before playing in the AHL. If they don’t have either, they need an exemption, which isn’t always granted. As such, Smith would be in a weird limbo. If he played even a few games with the Sharks, he couldn’t return to college hockey, and he could not play in the AHL. He would have to find a junior team and while that would not be a problem, it would not be the best choice for his development.

(It’s worth noting that the Sabres’ Benson went the junior hockey route, so there was a bit more flexibility there.)

Allowing Smith to play college hockey for a season gives the Sharks and the player better options. Smith’s development is not hindered and the Sharks don’t have to burn a year of an entry-level contract on a player who isn’t quite large enough to play at the NHL level.

Even though it’s less exciting for Sharks fans, allowing Smith to play with Boston College this season is the best choice for everyone involved.

Side note: Some of those old Sharks articles are interesting reads. I’ve attached one below from before the 1997 draft. It was written by staff writer Mike Guersch. Interestingly, Guersch talks to Peter DeBoer, who was the head coach and general manager of the Detroit Whalers that draft year. DeBoer talked about both Thornton and Marleau in that article.