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Statistical Analysis

Week 4 Playoff Probabilities

With a quarter of the season over we take a look at who has the inside track on playoff position.

I added a few columns per requests from the previous week, including current team position on the far right. Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 2/17/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

Western Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Games Played Current Standings
1 Chicago Blackhawks 53.52 91.4% 4.8% 64.01 27 15 1
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.70 84.1% 10.4% 61.04 23 14 2
3 Vancouver Canucks 54.07 62.8% -3.8% 55.40 19 14 3
4 St. Louis Blues 52.07 63.0% 10.1% 55.45 19 15 4
5 Nashville Predators 49.01 62.9% -3.0% 55.35 19 15 5
6 San Jose Sharks 49.80 56.3% -6.8% 54.05 17 14 6
7 Dallas Stars 49.31 50.2% 0.0% 52.71 17 16 7
8 Detroit Red Wings 52.32 49.7% 6.5% 52.46 16 15 9
9 Phoenix Coyotes 50.10 45.6% 3.9% 51.83 16 15 8
10 Minnesota Wild 48.49 45.4% 1.9% 51.77 16 15 10
11 Los Angeles Kings 54.22 44.4% -0.6% 51.58 12 13 13
12 Edmonton Oilers 47.57 44.2% -11.1% 51.17 15 14 11
13 Calgary Flames 51.27 42.9% 0.8% 50.96 13 13 12
14 Colorado Avalanche 49.96 37.1% -2.0% 49.58 11 13 14
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.24 20.0% -11.0% 45.89 10 15 15

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Games Played Current Standings
1 Boston Bruins 52.59 77.8% 5.5% 58.53 20 13 2
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 52.24 76.2% 6.3% 57.68 22 16 1
3 Carolina Hurricanes 50.32 68.7% 11.2% 55.91 17 13 3
4 New Jersey Devils 50.05 73.0% -0.9% 57.05 21 15 4
5 Montreal Canadiens 50.35 67.4% 13.4% 55.71 19 14 5
6 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.32 63.0% 2.7% 54.47 18 15 6
7 New York Rangers 51.55 58.0% 10.5% 53.66 17 14 7
8 Ottawa Senators 52.46 52.6% -2.3% 52.24 16 15 8
9 Tampa Bay Lightning 46.97 50.5% -7.9% 52.06 15 14 9
10 New York Islanders 48.77 44.5% 1.4% 50.56 13 14 10
11 Florida Panthers 47.38 38.8% -5.8% 49.43 12 14 13
12 Philadelphia Flyers 49.73 35.3% -10.0% 48.88 13 16 11
13 Buffalo Sabres 47.01 32.1% -14.5% 48.25 13 16 12
14 Winnipeg Jets 51.40 32.6% -17.0% 47.94 11 14 14
15 Washington Capitals 50.12 29.6% 7.4% 47.40 11 15 15

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

As you can see, it's still a really tight race for the playoffs, especially in the West. Chicago is by far the front runner for the President's trophy, winning it in almost 25% of the sims. It helps to have a favorable PDO, but as you can see from the table below, Chicago remains an elite possession team.

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Rank Team SAF%
1 Los Angeles Kings 54.2
2 Vancouver Canucks 54.1
3 Chicago Blackhawks 53.5
4 Boston Bruins 52.6
8 St. Louis Blues 52.1
5 Ottawa Senators 52.5
7 Pittsburgh Penguins 52.2
6 Detroit Red Wings 52.3
11 Calgary Flames 51.3
9 New York Rangers 51.5
10 Winnipeg Jets 51.4
14 Washington Capitals 50.1
12 Montreal Canadiens 50.4
13 Carolina Hurricanes 50.3
15 Phoenix Coyotes 50.1
16 New Jersey Devils 50.1
17 Colorado Avalanche 50.0
18 San Jose Sharks 49.8
19 Philadelphia Flyers 49.7
20 Dallas Stars 49.3
21 Nashville Predators 49.0
22 New York Islanders 48.8
23 Anaheim Ducks 48.7
24 Minnesota Wild 48.5
25 Edmonton Oilers 47.6
26 Florida Panthers 47.4
27 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.3
28 Buffalo Sabres 47.0
29 Tampa Bay Lightning 47.0
30 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.2

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)


Comparing the tables above, you can see how vital it is to establish points, even early in the season. Despite being tops in SAF, LAK missed the playoffs more than they made them in all sims.

As for the Sharks, the declining possession numbers are certainly concerning. I'd like to see the team with a healthy Burns in the line-up, as he had fantastic possession numbers last season, and dramatically improves the D. Burns offloads breakout responsibilities from players like Stuart and Vlassic, that (for reasons I don't completely understand) haven't shown a talent for making good decisions with the puck.

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