Week 4 Playoff Probabilities

I added a few columns per requests from the previous week, including current team position on the far right. Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 2/17/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

Western Conference

Final Standings	Team	Score Adj Fenwick%	Playoff Probability	Change in PP	Mean Points	Current Points	Games Played	Current Standings
1	Chicago Blackhawks	53.52	91.4%	4.8%	64.01	27	15	1
2	Anaheim Ducks	48.70	84.1%	10.4%	61.04	23	14	2
3	Vancouver Canucks	54.07	62.8%	-3.8%	55.40	19	14	3
4	St. Louis Blues	52.07	63.0%	10.1%	55.45	19	15	4
5	Nashville Predators	49.01	62.9%	-3.0%	55.35	19	15	5
6	San Jose Sharks	49.80	56.3%	-6.8%	54.05	17	14	6
7	Dallas Stars	49.31	50.2%	0.0%	52.71	17	16	7
8	Detroit Red Wings	52.32	49.7%	6.5%	52.46	16	15	9
9	Phoenix Coyotes	50.10	45.6%	3.9%	51.83	16	15	8
10	Minnesota Wild	48.49	45.4%	1.9%	51.77	16	15	10
11	Los Angeles Kings	54.22	44.4%	-0.6%	51.58	12	13	13
12	Edmonton Oilers	47.57	44.2%	-11.1%	51.17	15	14	11
13	Calgary Flames	51.27	42.9%	0.8%	50.96	13	13	12
14	Colorado Avalanche	49.96	37.1%	-2.0%	49.58	11	13	14
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	46.24	20.0%	-11.0%	45.89	10	15	15

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings	Team	Score Adj Fenwick%	Playoff Probability	Change in PP	Mean Points	Current Points	Games Played	Current Standings
1	Boston Bruins	52.59	77.8%	5.5%	58.53	20	13	2
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	52.24	76.2%	6.3%	57.68	22	16	1
3	Carolina Hurricanes	50.32	68.7%	11.2%	55.91	17	13	3
4	New Jersey Devils	50.05	73.0%	-0.9%	57.05	21	15	4
5	Montreal Canadiens	50.35	67.4%	13.4%	55.71	19	14	5
6	Toronto Maple Leafs	47.32	63.0%	2.7%	54.47	18	15	6
7	New York Rangers	51.55	58.0%	10.5%	53.66	17	14	7
8	Ottawa Senators	52.46	52.6%	-2.3%	52.24	16	15	8
9	Tampa Bay Lightning	46.97	50.5%	-7.9%	52.06	15	14	9
10	New York Islanders	48.77	44.5%	1.4%	50.56	13	14	10
11	Florida Panthers	47.38	38.8%	-5.8%	49.43	12	14	13
12	Philadelphia Flyers	49.73	35.3%	-10.0%	48.88	13	16	11
13	Buffalo Sabres	47.01	32.1%	-14.5%	48.25	13	16	12
14	Winnipeg Jets	51.40	32.6%	-17.0%	47.94	11	14	14
15	Washington Capitals	50.12	29.6%	7.4%	47.40	11	15	15

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

As you can see, it’s still a really tight race for the playoffs, especially in the West. Chicago is by far the front runner for the President’s trophy, winning it in almost 25% of the sims. It helps to have a favorable PDO, but as you can see from the table below, Chicago remains an elite possession team.

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Rank	Team	SAF%
1	Los Angeles Kings	54.2
2	Vancouver Canucks	54.1
3	Chicago Blackhawks	53.5
4	Boston Bruins	52.6
8	St. Louis Blues	52.1
5	Ottawa Senators	52.5
7	Pittsburgh Penguins	52.2
6	Detroit Red Wings	52.3
11	Calgary Flames	51.3
9	New York Rangers	51.5
10	Winnipeg Jets	51.4
14	Washington Capitals	50.1
12	Montreal Canadiens	50.4
13	Carolina Hurricanes	50.3
15	Phoenix Coyotes	50.1
16	New Jersey Devils	50.1
17	Colorado Avalanche	50.0
18	San Jose Sharks	49.8
19	Philadelphia Flyers	49.7
20	Dallas Stars	49.3
21	Nashville Predators	49.0
22	New York Islanders	48.8
23	Anaheim Ducks	48.7
24	Minnesota Wild	48.5
25	Edmonton Oilers	47.6
26	Florida Panthers	47.4
27	Toronto Maple Leafs	47.3
28	Buffalo Sabres	47.0
29	Tampa Bay Lightning	47.0
30	Columbus Blue Jackets	46.2

(updated 2.18.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Comparing the tables above, you can see how vital it is to establish points, even early in the season. Despite being tops in SAF, LAK missed the playoffs more than they made them in all sims.

As for the Sharks, the declining possession numbers are certainly concerning. I’d like to see the team with a healthy Burns in the line-up, as he had fantastic possession numbers last season, and dramatically improves the D. Burns offloads breakout responsibilities from players like Stuart and Vlassic, that (for reasons I don’t completely understand) haven’t shown a talent for making good decisions with the puck.

Western Conference

Eastern Conference

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Talking Points