This piece is a continuation of our monthly prospect piece at Fear The Fin, where we combine current form and overall ability to create a “prospect power ranking.” These rankings are meant to be somewhat stable. You can see how the players ranked in January here.
To qualify as a prospect, players must fit the NHL definition of rookie, which state that “a player must not have played in more than 25 NHL games in any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two preceding seasons. Any player at least 26 years of age (by September 15th of that season) is not considered a rookie.”
By this definition, Thomas Bordeleau and William Eklund are not rookies, though Henry Thrun and Ty Emberson still qualify.
1. Will Smith (C)
Age: 18
Team: Boston College (NCAA)
Statistics: 31 games, 51 points (17 goals, 34 assists) – Boston College
Previous rank: 1
Smith has been on a tear since returning from the World Juniors, with 23 points in his last 12 games. After a decent but unspectacular start, the center has taken his performance to an entirely new level on both ends of the ice, leads the NCAA in points, and can now reasonably be called one of the three best players in all of college hockey, along with linemate Gabe Perreault and likely first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini.
The main question revolving around his game now simply concerns his physical readiness. When General Manager Mike Grier was asked about why the superstar prospect didn’t join the NHL this year, he implied that the Sharks needed to see more physical growth from Smith before putting him into the NHL. Smith doesn’t have much more to prove at the collegiate level, but putting him on an awful Sharks team before he’s physically ready could theoretically do more harm than good, making the next decision arguably the most important one of his career to date.
2. Shakir Mukhamadullin (D)
Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
Statistics:
- 45 games, 27 points (6 goal, 21 assists) (AHL)
- 3 games, 1 point (1 assist) (NHL)
Previous rank: 2
Like Smith, Mukhamadullin has seen his stock rise rapidly since the turn of the calendar, with the mobile 6-foot-5 defenseman impressing every scout in existence during his brief three-game debut stint in the NHL. With an impressive reach, a smooth stride, and a rapidly improving read on the game, it is easy to see why seasoned NHL watchers are so enamored with him, and it is a sentiment shared by Head Coach David Quinn and the rest of the Sharks organization.
Due to the NHL club’s rather awful on-ice product this year, however, there is a school of thought that feels the AHL is the best place for him to develop. Quinn seemed to agree with this, repeatedly emphasizing the need for patience and a high volume of minutes that was simply unlikely to come in the NHL.
This approach may seem infuriating to fans who have little to cheer about this season, but Sharks fans will remember Mirco Mueller, a similar prospect who was rushed by the team and ended up stalling far earlier than anyone would have imagined. San Jose will be doing everything possible to ensure that this doesn’t happen with Mukhamadullin.
3. Quentin Musty (C/LW)
Age: 18
Team: Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Statistics: 40 games, 70 points (28 goals, 42 assists)
Previous rank: 4
It’s becoming increasingly clear that this will be Musty’s last season in the OHL, as he is quickly outgrowing junior hockey in both the physical and metaphorical senses. It is difficult to find a more offensively-gifted player in the league, and the numbers bear out the eye test — his 1.77 points per game rank only behind Easton Cowan’s 1.79 for the league lead. He is producing at a level that you would expect out of a top-ten draft pick, and his development has seen him already eclipse many of the players taken above him last June.
Musty’s main drawback is that he continues to take extremely pointless penalties. A player is of no use to his team unless he can actually stay on the ice, and over the last two seasons, the Sudbury superstar has played 92 games and racked up 119 PIMs. If he can get out of his own way, the sky remains the limit for him.
4. Luca Cagnoni (D)
Age: 18
Team: Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Statistics: 53 games, 71 points (13 goals, 58 assists)
Previous rank: 3
The best predictor of NHL success for junior hockey players is usually just their scoring rate. Even Marc-Edouard Vlasic put up 73 points in 66 games in his post-draft season in the QMJHL. For Cagnoni to cut it as an NHLer, he’ll need to demonstrate something truly outstanding to compensate for his physical deficiencies. He’s doing exactly that with his play this season.
The concerns about his size may never go away, but Cagnoni is now on pace for 89 points in the WHL this season. Those are the types of numbers that many NHL teams would love from their offensive prospects — to get them from the blueline is scarcely believable and hints at a goldmine of potential in the NHL.
5. Ty Emberson (D)
Age: 23
Team: San Jose Sharks (NHL)
Statistics: 27 games, 9 points (1 goal, 8 assists)
Previous rank: N/A
At just 23 years of age, Ty Emberson is a perfectly serviceable bottom-four defenseman.
He may never become more than that, but most prospects never get this far. Despite being plucked off the waiver wire in training camp, Emberson has adjusted seamlessly to his new surroundings and has been one of the two best defenders on the team when healthy, with an above-average impact on goals prevented (per Evolving Hockey).
San Jose is almost certainly listening to offers for almost every player, but Emberson is one that it makes little sense to trade — the return he would command would be, at most, a second-round pick, and those players rarely turn into what he already is now.
6. Daniil Gushchin (RW)
Age: 21
Team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
Statistics: 39 games, 37 points (14 goals, 23 assists)
Previous rank: 5
Gushchin’s selection to the AHL all-star game was a richly-deserved reward for a phenomenal season, with the forward being one of the lone bright offensive lights during a dismal Barracuda season. Unfortunately, the injury bug has hit him at the worst possible time, and it may be some time before the AHL club sees their offensive star on the ice again.
With the Sharks poised to trade many of their current players at the deadline, it is more likely that Gushchin will spend the business end of the season in the NHL. His play may go a long way towards determining whether he keeps his spot there next year.
7. Cameron Lund (C)
Age: 19
Team: Northeastern (NCAA)
Statistics: 29 games, 28 points (8 goals, 10 assists)
Previous rank: 7
There were seasons in which Lund would have unquestionably been the best prospect in the Sharks system. His current middle-tier ranking should be seen as an indicator of the excellent job that GM Grier has done in revamping the team’s prospect pool.
With Lund guiding his team to victory over Boston University (and Macklin Celebrini) in the Beanpot, Sharks fans can feel very good about his progress. With two more years of college eligibility, it is likely that the Sharks will be substantially better by the time Lund suits up for them. His growth this season should give fans hope that the team may have found a third-line center for their next playoff team.
Previously on the list: Mattias Havelid (#8), Jake Furlong (#7)
Honorable mention: Mattias Havelid (D), Ethan Cardwell (RW)
As many of you know, Fear the Fin is an independent site run by Sharks fans for Sharks fans. Help keep Fear the Fin independent by contributing to our